Despite a strong weekly close for Bitcoin (BTC) last weekend, bulls still face significant hurdles to consolidate their gains.
Analysts warn that the Bitcoin bear market structure remains intact, with recent "death cross" signals intensifying market concerns. Meanwhile, the macroeconomic environment presents multiple potential volatility catalysts as the Federal Reserve prepares to announce its interest rate decision. The recent lackluster performance of gold has also sparked discussions about whether capital will rotate into Bitcoin. Several market signals suggest a reassessment of Bitcoin's future price trajectory is necessary.
Bulls Face Resistance at $75,000
In the lead-up to the weekly close, Bitcoin bulls fought to push the price to $74,425, marking a six-week high. Data from TradingView shows that Bitcoin remains stable above $70,000 as the traditional financial markets trading week begins. Furthermore, Bitcoin has reclaimed the 50-day moving average (SMA), the first time since mid-January.
Independent analyst Filbfilb commented on his Telegram channel, "The dip-buying momentum continues. I think there's a good chance the price will continue to be squeezed higher."
However, some analysts remain cautious. CrypNuevo warns that any macroeconomic scenario shifts that could signal an end to the Israel-Iran conflict might lead to a "pump and dump" situation in the market, where prices surge significantly before retracing most or all of their gains, trapping late long positions.
Skepticism is widespread in the market. Trader Killa believes there isn't much reason to change his bearish outlook. Another trader and analyst, Mark Cullen, suggests that Bitcoin's price needs to break the swing low around $75,000 from April 2025 to be considered bullish.
Potential Impact of Bitcoin's "Death Cross"
Analysis warns that Bitcoin's rebound needs to show clear signs of strength to be convincing. Analyst Alan emphasizes, "The price might continue to chop this month, but remember – don't ignore this structure and the 200-week moving average."
Macro Volatility Risks for Bitcoin Intensify
This week is set to be packed with macroeconomic events, with multiple volatility catalysts creating tension in the market, but also potential opportunities. Amidst the US geopolitical backdrop and the ongoing Israel-Iran conflict, inflation concerns in the US have resurfaced as oil prices surge. The Federal Reserve is poised to make a crucial decision regarding adjustments to its benchmark interest rate.
Former President Trump posted on Truth Social, "Countries that get oil through the Hormuz must secure the waterway, and we will provide a lot of help! The United States will also coordinate with these countries to ensure everything goes smoothly."
Kobeissi commented, "If energy prices remain elevated, manufacturers may have to pass on costs to retailers and consumers."
Gold Pulls Back, Bitcoin Rebounds?
As oil prices once again approach recent highs near $120 per barrel, Bitcoin market participants are eagerly hoping BTC can replace gold as a safe haven during uncertain times. However, this expectation has yet to materialize, with gold making consecutive breakthroughs over the past six months while the Bitcoin/USD exchange rate hovers at multi-year lows. Although the Iran conflict provides an ideal safe-haven scenario for gold, capital flows remain to be seen.
