Polymarket has processed over 5.25 million transactions to date, with an average daily trading volume of approximately 55,000 trades, despite regulatory restrictions preventing U.S. users from accessing its international version.
Source: DUNE
Transactions between $10 and $50 account for 28% of the total trading volume, indicating that most users are exploring the platform with smaller capital before committing larger amounts. Currently, the total open contracts amount to $1.15 million, significantly lower than the $2.5 million peak reached in January 2026.
The use of USDC as the primary liquidity tool on the platform has contributed to the improvement in market liquidity. However, analysts warn that Polymarket USA still sees activity from large wallets (i.e., whales), raising concerns about potential insider trading.
Kalshi Faces Legal Battles to Avoid Being Labeled as a Gambling PlatformPolymarket's main competitor in the U.S., Kalshi, is also undergoing a regulatory consolidation process. The platform has seen a surge in activity but faces a series of lawsuits in multiple states that classify it as a sports betting platform rather than a trading venue.
The legal distinction is crucial. Established sports betting platforms like DraftKings have already achieved regulatory compliance in several states. If Polymarket and Kalshi are assigned the same classification, they will need to restructure their entire operations under a stricter legal framework.
Both platforms not only face competition from global prediction markets, but many users continue to access these markets through private networks despite the bans, while also competing with established traditional betting operators.
Crypto prediction markets attract traders seeking new sources of liquidity that extend beyond traditional exchanges. However, widespread adoption still hinges on U.S. regulators' classification decisions regarding these products in the coming months.