Bitcoin price surged to $74,157 on Monday morning, marking a five-week high, primarily driven by institutional and whale buying. Ahead of the Federal Reserve's upcoming rate decision, can this leading indicator break through the psychological support level of $75,000?
The rebound in Bitcoin's price today is attributed to institutions and whales continuing to buy the dip, betting on this safe-haven asset, especially amid ongoing geopolitical tensions.
According to analysis from Santiment, this is seen as a "bullish signal," indicating that Bitcoin is entering the wallets of long-term holders.
Meanwhile, Bitcoin consortium companies like Michael Saylor's MicroStrategy and Metaplanet are also actively buying, providing solid support for the price.
Due to Iran's military escalation and attacks on infrastructure (such as threats to the Strait of Hormuz), oil prices have surged to multi-year highs, with Iran even threatening to fully block this globally significant oil passage.
Next Catalysts for Bitcoin Price
Currently, the key catalyst for Bitcoin's price will be the Federal Reserve's rate decision announced on Wednesday, March 18, at 2 PM ET. Economists widely expect the Fed to maintain rates between 3.50% and 3.75%, likely continuing a cautious stance as inflation levels remain high due to the impact of oil prices.
While stable rate expectations have historically suppressed the rise of risk assets, Bitcoin's current momentum and its rise as "digital gold" suggest that a breakthrough above the psychological resistance of $75,000 could trigger a massive short squeeze, pushing the price towards $80,000.
Bitcoin Price Analysis
As of the time of writing, the technical indicators on the Bitcoin/USDT daily chart appear to show a bullish scenario, indicating a significant trend reversal is underway.
Bitcoin price has broken above the critical 50-day simple moving average at $71,164, which is both a psychological and technical level. The last time it broke this trend line in early February, BTC rose nearly 33% within a month.
The 20-day simple moving average is also nearing a bullish crossover with the 50-day simple moving average, a classic signal known as a "golden cross," which typically indicates sustained upward momentum.
Meanwhile, the performance of the Aroon indicator further enhances the bullish outlook, with Aroon Up reaching 100% and Aroon Down at 0%. This strong configuration indicates that buyers are fully in control of the current price action.
Currently, the $75,000 region, as a psychological resistance for traders historically, will determine the asset's short-term trajectory. If this level is breached, the bull market may target $80,665 next.
Conversely, if the price falls below the support level of $70,000, the current breakout may fail, leading to a period of consolidation.