Bitcoin's Price Movement Influenced by Nasdaq Correlation; Liquidity as a Key Indicator

Currently, Bitcoin's price is fluctuating around $72,662, below its 50-day moving average of $77,048 and 200-day moving average of $96,782. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is approximately 46.14, indicating an overall bearish market sentiment. Despite a recent brief rebound, most analysts believe this movement is more likely due to a strong correlation with the Nasdaq index (NDX) rather than a fundamental, structurally-driven shift.

The correlation between Bitcoin and tech stocks remains significant, especially against the backdrop of Federal Reserve policy shifts and fluctuations in dollar liquidity. Its price performance often moves in sync with risk assets. Without a substantial improvement in the macro liquidity environment, such rebounds may only be temporary technical corrections, what the market refers to as a "dead cat bounce."

Signals to watch include the net inflows and outflows of Bitcoin ETFs, changes in futures basis, and dollar liquidity indicators such as the Dollar Index (DXY), Financial Conditions Index, Federal Reserve Reverse Repo (RRP) balance, and Treasury General Account (TGA) movements. These data points help distinguish between genuine demand support and short-term speculative behavior, avoiding misjudgment of trends when prices and macro factors briefly diverge. Currently, there is no clear evidence that Bitcoin has achieved a long-term decoupling from tech stocks. Any so-called "decoupling" argument must be based on sustained divergence across multiple liquidity cycles. In the short term, Bitcoin still needs to break through key resistance levels and be accompanied by broader signals of liquidity easing to confirm the possibility of a trend reversal.