Is the momentum of Bitcoin changing?
Currently, Bitcoin's trading price is around $73,000, firmly above the 30-day moving average of $68,661. This position indicates that there is still buying pressure in the short term, with no obvious downward trend. However, Bitcoin faces challenges at the levels of the 90-day moving average of $79,815 and the 200-day moving average of $93,892, showing that it has not fully regained its previous long-term upward momentum.
The current market sentiment does not suggest that the $21,000 gap between Bitcoin's price and the 200-day moving average will close anytime soon. To reach this benchmark, Bitcoin needs to maintain a sustained upward trajectory, and the current trend does not indicate that this will happen in the short term.
What insights does the Z-score provide?
Bitcoin's Z-score is approximately -0.57, indicating that the price is slightly below its historical average. This metric has not reached the extreme levels seen during significant market downturns in 2018 and 2022. In contrast, the current negative Z-score is closer to a phase of accumulation or preparation for the next growth cycle, rather than a clear bear market like in the past.
An analysis of cryptocurrency market activity from 2017 to 2026 shows its cyclical characteristics. Historical data indicates that the convergence of moving averages typically accompanies a recovery after each halving event. A greater distance between the 30-day, 90-day, and 200-day moving averages suggests that the market is undergoing an adjustment phase.
Short-term moving averages positioned above long-term moving averages usually signal that the market is about to enter a bull market. Currently, achieving this crossover implies a longer recovery time rather than a sudden change.
Key conclusions include:
- Although Bitcoin maintains a foothold in market stability, the current situation lacks a clear bull market trend. As industry analysts have pointed out, “This is a period of recalibration for the market before transitioning to the next strong phase.”
The indicators and cycles described emphasize the need for patience and a strategic observation period regarding Bitcoin's future development.