Key Moving Average Levels
The current Bitcoin price is approximately $21,000 away from the 200-day moving average. Market observers expect this gap will not close quickly. For Bitcoin to regain its long-term average, a strong and sustained upward trend is necessary, but the current price action does not seem to support this in the short term.
What Does the Z-score Indicator Reveal?
Another important indicator is the Z-score, which is currently around -0.57. This metric measures the gap between Bitcoin's price and its historical average. A Z-score close to zero indicates that the price is in line with the long-term mean, while a positive value suggests the price is above average, and a negative value indicates it is below historical standards.
A reading of -0.57 suggests that Bitcoin's trading price is slightly below the historical benchmark, but it is not in the territory typically associated with severe bottoms or extreme undervaluation. During the bear markets of 2018 and 2022, the Z-score reached deeper negative values, while the current figure reflects a more balanced situation, situated within the range of historical accumulation and transitioning into a new upward cycle.
Cyclical Perspective and Price Action
The macro chart from 2017 to 2026 shows that there are repeating cycles in Bitcoin's price movements. After each block reward halving, the moving averages tend to converge before expanding alongside price increases. The significant gap between the 30-day, 90-day, and 200-day moving averages currently indicates that a major correction in the short term has impacted the long-term trend. When these averages eventually converge, and the short-term average crosses above the long-term indicators, it often signals the beginning of a new bull market.
Currently, the 30-day average is $11,000 lower than the 90-day average and about $25,000 lower than the 200-day average. For the short-term average to surpass its long-term counterparts, Bitcoin's price needs a substantial and lasting recovery. Such a process typically does not happen in a matter of days and involves a longer adjustment period.
Today's overall indicators are generally consistent with the conditions observed at previous cycle lows. The Z-score remains within the accumulation zone, and the price is comfortably above the shortest moving average. Meanwhile, the long-term trend line since 2017 continues to trend upward, with Bitcoin consistently above this line on a macro scale.