Ethereum has recently shown stronger upward potential. After consolidating above February lows for several weeks, ETH has successfully broken through a key resistance area, marking a significant test since the recent sell-off. While the rebound momentum is real, the price is approaching levels where sellers previously emerged.
Ethereum Price Analysis: Daily Chart
The daily chart shows signs of improvement, but the overall trend is not yet fully repaired. ETH's price remains below its 100-day and 200-day moving averages, and the larger bearish structure formed in previous months has not been completely broken. Nevertheless, the strong bounce from the $1,800 area confirms active defense by buyers in this region.
Currently, Ethereum is trading near the $2,300 to $2,400 supply zone, which is the next major battleground. If buyers can successfully flip this area into support, it could open the door for prices to move towards higher resistance at $2,800. Conversely, this rally might just be a strong bear market bounce within a damaged higher timeframe structure.
ETH/USDT 4-Hour Chart
Looking at the 4-hour chart, the recovery trend is clearer. ETH is climbing within an ascending channel, showing higher highs and higher lows, indicating clear buyer control in the short term. It has even broken out of this channel, suggesting a potentially more aggressive rally, provided the current move doesn't turn into a false breakout by retreating back into the channel.
Meanwhile, momentum indicators have also strengthened significantly, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) entering overbought territory as the price accelerates towards resistance.
However, the market is no longer in the middle of the range. It is testing the upper limit of the recent rally while simultaneously facing supply pressure from above. This typically means the next move is crucial, potentially leading to a sustained uptrend breaking through the channel and resistance, or a false breakout resulting in a pullback to the mid-channel and the $2,000-$2,100 area.
On-Chain Analysis
The on-chain data backdrop shows constructive signals. Despite a pullback from recent peaks, Ethereum's 30-day transaction volume exponential moving average remains above most of the past cycles. This suggests that network activity has not collapsed even after price declines, with underlying usage remaining relatively robust.
However, this could also hint at a potential panic selling phase, where many holders are actively selling tokens and exiting quickly. But it's worth noting that for every sell-off, new buyers are entering the market.
Overall, on-chain data indicates active participation that is more telling than price action alone. This does not guarantee an immediate uptrend, but it does support the view that the recent rally has a more solid foundation than a purely speculative bounce. If the price can break through resistance levels, the on-chain picture will align more clearly with a broader recovery narrative.