This week, the three major central banks globally are expected to maintain their interest rates. The Federal Reserve will conclude its two-day meeting on Wednesday, while the Bank of England and the European Central Bank will make their decisions on Thursday. The Bank of England has kept its rate unchanged at 3.75% since December 2025 and is currently facing similar considerations—markets had assigned a 90% probability to a rate cut in March, but this probability has now fallen below 30%, according to analysis from MoneyWeek.
In terms of interest rate outlook, the European Central Bank maintained its rate at 2% in February, and Deutsche Bank's baseline forecast suggests no further adjustments until 2026. The National Institute of Economic and Social Research has simulated a scenario where, if energy costs remain high over the next twelve months, the benchmark rate could rise back to 4.5%.
Bitcoin's Reaction
At the time of writing, Bitcoin was trading close to $74,000, up about 5% from last week. According to CoinGecko, it briefly reached $76,000 in early Monday trading, marking its highest level since early February.
There is a general consensus among institutions that Bitcoin benefits from stagnant interest rates, although the correlation of this view varies significantly under different macroeconomic conditions across cycles.