Cryptocurrency analysis firm GreeksLive has assessed current market expectations and their potential impact on Bitcoin following the Federal Reserve's upcoming interest rate decision.
According to GreeksLive's analysis, the futures market is almost unanimous in its expectation that the Federal Reserve will maintain interest rates unchanged at its March meeting. Current price data indicates a 99% probability that rates will remain within the 3.5% to 3.75% range. For the April meeting, the market also widely anticipates no rate hikes, with a probability of approximately 97%.
GreeksLive points out that the next two Federal Reserve meetings could be crucial turning points for the cryptocurrency market this year. Analysts emphasize the complex global macroeconomic environment, particularly the conflicts in the Middle East driving up energy prices and putting new pressure on inflation (PCE). Against this backdrop, the initial optimism for rate cuts at the beginning of the year has gradually been replaced by expectations of prolonged high interest rates.
Among the dates closely watched by the market, March 18th and April 29th stand out. At the March 18th meeting, market focus will be on the 'dot plot,' which illustrates the Fed's projections for future interest rates. Analysis suggests that the dot plot may still not include any rate cut expectations by 2026. The April 29th meeting is particularly critical, being the last key decision-making session before Fed Chair Powell's term ends. It is said that Powell's remarks at this meeting could play a decisive role in determining liquidity conditions for the second half of the year.
Regarding Bitcoin, the price is currently consolidating around $74,000, with market sentiment reportedly in the 'neutral' zone. GreeksLive predicts that if the Federal Reserve signals a hawkish stance, particularly by lowering rate cut expectations for 2026, it could tighten liquidity and pull Bitcoin's price back to the support level of $68,000. Conversely, a dovish surprise (e.g., Powell indicating inflation is under control or shifting focus to the labor market) could see Bitcoin move towards the $80,000 level due to increased liquidity expectations.
The analysis also highlights a key 'X-factor' – Kevin Warsh. This individual, a former nominee for Fed Chair by President Trump, presents an additional risk factor to the market due to the uncertainty surrounding his monetary policy stance. GreeksLive believes that institutional investors may lean towards reducing positions due to this uncertainty, especially leading up to the April meeting, leading to risk aversion. This scenario could trigger significant market volatility, particularly in the altcoin market.