Despite Bitcoin showing upward momentum in recent weeks, long-term cycle analysis sometimes sends different signals compared to short-term momentum indicators. A chart shared by an analyst named Crypto Patel depicts a possibility: Bitcoin might still experience a significant pullback before reaching new all-time highs.
Over the past month, Bitcoin's price has shown a moderate upward trend. In the last 30 days, BTC's price has increased by approximately 7.66%, climbing from the $60,000 range to the mid-$70,000s, bringing Bitcoin's total market capitalization close to $1.48 trillion.
During this period, the daily chart shows a steady ascent rather than a sudden surge. Some trading days saw significant volume expansion, which typically occurs in healthy trends, indicating active buyer participation during price retracements.
Last week, short-term momentum further strengthened. Bitcoin's price rose by about 5.82% over the past 7 days and successfully broke through the $70,000 mark, which had acted as resistance earlier in the month.
Currently, support has shifted to the lower $70,000s range. Bitcoin recently broke above this area, and if it can maintain stability above this level, prices are expected to consolidate or see a slight increase in the coming week.
Crypto Patel's Chart Reveals Bitcoin Cycles Often Accompanied by Major Corrections
Historical data indicates that significant price corrections often follow major upward waves. The 2018 cycle depicted in the chart is a prime example. During this period, Bitcoin's price plummeted from approximately $19,666 to around $3,122, a drop of 84%.
Another notable instance occurred after the price peak in 2021. In the subsequent bear market, Bitcoin's price fell from around $69,000 to nearly $15,479, a decline of approximately 77%.
Crypto Patel extends this pattern to the current cycle. According to his chart analysis, Bitcoin's price may have recently peaked around $126,272. Applying a 77% drop from this level, the theoretical bottom could reach $32,000.
However, this analysis does not assert that such a crash is inevitable. Crypto Patel explains that the so-called "maximum pain zone" might be closer to the $40,000 to $50,000 range, rather than $32,000.
Long-Term Bitcoin Trendline Still Points to Higher Prices
Beyond the pullback prediction, the chart includes another crucial feature: a long-term ascending trendline that spans multiple Bitcoin cycles.
This trendline connects major market bottoms and continues to slope upwards over time. Past correction movements have ultimately respected this trendline before Bitcoin embarked on new expansion phases.
Therefore, the price structure presented in the chart offers two coexisting perspectives: on one hand, the analysis warns of a potential pullback towards the $40,000 to $50,000 region; on the other hand, the broader long-term Bitcoin trend still points towards higher price levels.
Crypto Patel views this potential pullback as part of the cycle, not the end of it.
Currently, Bitcoin's price is caught between these two competing narratives.