The net inflow of the U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF has continued for seven days, attracting hundreds of millions of dollars in new capital, despite on-chain data showing that short-term holders are distributing their Bitcoin around the $74,263 mark. This divergence between institutional demand and retail profit-taking creates a short-term tension for Bitcoin's next price movement.
Bitcoin ETF Attracts Funds for Seven Consecutive Days
On-chain data indicates that short-term holders are selling Bitcoin.
While ETF inflows reflect bullish institutional sentiment, on-chain data reveals a different dynamic between retail and short-term holders. Short-term holders are defined as wallets that have held Bitcoin for less than 155 days, and they are increasing deposits to exchanges, a pattern typically associated with profit-taking or risk reduction.
Many of these holders accumulated Bitcoin at lower prices towards the end of 2025 and early 2026. With Bitcoin now trading close to $74,263, their positions are in profit, creating a natural incentive to realize gains. The Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) for short-term holders has remained above 1.0, confirming that these coins are being sold at a profit rather than a loss.
Short-term selling pressure is not uncommon during ongoing bullish trends. This reflects a rotation where early buyers exit to lock in profits, while new institutional capital enters the market through compliant channels like ETFs. The key question is whether the demand driven by ETFs can absorb this distribution without triggering a significant pullback.
This dynamic also highlights the increasingly deep structural divergence in the Bitcoin market. Institutional buyers operating through ETFs typically hold for longer periods and are less sensitive to short-term price fluctuations, while on-chain retail participants are more active around key psychological price levels like $70,000 and $75,000.
ETF Demand vs. Retail Selling: Which Force Will Prevail?
At the current pace, the $458 million inflow in March translates to an average daily inflow of about $65 million over seven days. While this figure is substantial, it remains below the peak daily inflows seen during the first quarter of 2024. Whether this is enough to absorb the distribution from short-term holders depends on the volume of coins entering exchanges, with on-chain analysts continuously monitoring this data on platforms like Glassnode and CryptoQuant.
The Federal Reserve is set to hold a policy meeting on March 18-19, which is a significant macro catalyst affecting the market. A hawkish interest rate stance could accelerate short-term holders' selling, while dovish signals might strengthen the accumulation trend among institutions. The options expiration on March 28 is another key event that will test the current tension between ETFs and retail.