Technical Analysis Warning
According to Brandt's analysis, the recent upward trend should not be viewed as the beginning of a full-blown bull market, but rather as a short-term technical rebound. He points out that despite the optimistic market sentiment, Bitcoin remains in a downward channel, and the price action lacks the structure needed for a sustainable rise.
Impact of Macroeconomic Indicators
Brandt's cautious viewpoint is supported by newly released U.S. economic data, which adds further uncertainty. The U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) rose 6% year-on-year, exceeding the expected increase of 4.8%. Meanwhile, the core producer price annual growth rate reached 5.2%.
Additionally, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics revised the inflation data for April upward, adjusting the previous annual rate from 4% to 4.3%. Officials acknowledged that early forecasts underestimated the impact of stable oil prices and the easing situation in the Middle East. However, recent data indicates that new volatility is emerging as inflation accelerates.
Key Technical Levels and Expectations
Another key point in Brandt's technical analysis is the relationship between the daily closing price and the Average True Range (ATR) indicator. He notes that if Bitcoin's closing price falls below $79,145, it would indicate insufficient buying momentum, thereby increasing the risk of a price pullback, first retreating to the midpoint of the channel, and then possibly touching the lower boundary of the channel.
Despite the overall market still showing signs of optimism and risk appetite, preliminary warning signals of downside for risk assets are beginning to emerge. With less than two weeks until June, global oil reserves are expected to approach critical levels. This pressure factor further reinforces Brandt's warning of ongoing downside risks.
Brandt concludes, “A new bottom has not formed in the market; the current price trend should be viewed as a temporary technical rebound.”
In summary, technical signals and the latest U.S. macroeconomic data indicate that clear bottom conditions for Bitcoin have yet to emerge. Analysts remain cautious and are closely monitoring any signs of potential pullbacks, especially towards the lower end of the trading channel.