Recently, payment giants Visa (V) and Mastercard (MA) have seen their stock prices significantly decline from historical highs, with Visa down 19%, Mastercard down 18%, and American Express (AXP) dropping 23%. This downturn is driven by two main factors: a proposal from the U.S. President to cap credit card interest rates, and growing concerns that stablecoin technology could disrupt the existing credit card industry business model.
Stablecoin technology offers retailers a faster and more cost-effective payment settlement method compared to traditional credit card systems. This competitive threat has left market participants uneasy. However, these payment giants have chosen not to adopt a passive defense but are actively adjusting their strategies to adapt to the changes.
Visa has also taken key actions in this transformation. The company’s contactless payment technology, which integrates stablecoin functionality, currently accounts for 80% of total offline transaction volume. Additionally, Visa has launched Visa CLI (Command Line Interface), enabling AI agents to execute card-based payments directly through terminal systems.
AI systems are rapidly integrating into the payment ecosystem. For instance, Tempo raised $500 million in funding last October, achieving a valuation of $5 billion. Its CEO, Matt Huang, is not only a co-founder of Paradigm but also a board member of Stripe.
According to Morgan Stanley's forecast, agentic commerce is expected to capture $385 billion in the U.S. online retail market by 2030. Meanwhile, stablecoin payments are projected to reach $33 trillion in total transaction volume for the entire year of 2025, marking a staggering 72% year-over-year growth.
The profound impact on payment infrastructure cannot be overlooked. Citrini Research highlighted a specific risk in a February 2026 analysis report: AI agents optimized to reduce costs may identify transaction fees of up to 2%-3% charged by Visa and Mastercard and choose to bypass these fees by processing stablecoins that cost only a fraction of a cent.
Currently, Visa processes transactions worth up to $17 trillion annually. The forward price-to-earnings ratios for Visa and Mastercard are approximately 24x and 22x, respectively, significantly below their historical valuation premium levels. In contrast, American Express has a forward P/E ratio of about 16x.
Analysts have moderately raised their earnings forecasts for 2026, expecting the overall industry to achieve low double-digit growth in earnings per share, with revenue growth of around 10%, totaling $163 billion.
Meanwhile, Stripe processed $1.9 trillion in payments in 2025 and acquired the stablecoin technology company Bridge for $1.1 billion, aiming to strategically control payment infrastructure rather than pay card networks for system access. Stripe's CEO Patrick Collison has stated, “Agentic payments are still in a very early stage, and we are still exploring the best ways to build.”