Current market signals for Bitcoin are quite clear: the sales volume from long-term holders has decreased, alleviating pressure on the market. VanEck notes that this phenomenon may carry a "potentially constructive" bias, although it does not imply that optimism will emerge immediately, it at least provides buyers with a relatively stable foundation.
Old Bitcoin Liquidity Declines
The core point of VanEck's report is simple: the spending of Bitcoin from old wallets has decreased. The transfer volume across all coin age groups has declined month-over-month, indicating that experienced investors are reducing the distribution of their held Bitcoin.
Meanwhile, the proportion of active supply held by long-term investors has dropped from 31% to 30%. This is not a collapse, but rather a low-key, almost silent slide, indicating that the proportion of old Bitcoin in circulation has decreased in the short term.
This signal is worth noting, as the Bitcoin market often reverses not through passion but through wear. When the oldest holders reduce their sales of Bitcoin, distribution pressure decreases. While this does not guarantee an immediate market rebound, it does alleviate the real burden on supply.
Miners Are Not in Panic
Another important observation is regarding the situation of Bitcoin miners. Over the past month, their economic conditions have worsened: total revenue has dropped by 11%, and industry stocks have lost about 7%. However, their outflow of Bitcoin to exchanges has only increased by 1%.
This detail is worth close attention. Miners have not fallen into a pattern of large-scale selling. Although they are under pressure, they have not translated this pressure into significant sales, which reduces a potential constraint on the short-term market.
However, the nuances of the situation are more severe. VanEck estimates that miners hold approximately 684,000 BTC (excluding the Bitcoin wallets belonging to Satoshi Nakamoto), a year-over-year decrease of about 0.5%, while around 164,000 BTC were newly mined during the same period. In simple terms, miners are almost covering their costs by selling most of the newly issued Bitcoin. If prices continue to decline, this restraint may be difficult to maintain.
Calmer Blockchains in More Mature Markets
On the surface, this phenomenon may seem somewhat pessimistic. However, VanEck provides a more detailed interpretation: an increasing amount of activity is migrating off-chain, shifting towards listed products, derivatives, and other financial channels that do not necessarily settle directly on the Bitcoin blockchain. The market is evolving towards a more institutionalized direction, making it less obvious at times to observe market activity through historical indicators of the network.