U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio made a firm statement on Tuesday, indicating that the crucial shipping channel of the Strait of Hormuz will "resume operations in some way." This remark came after U.S. military forces conducted airstrikes in southern Iran and coincided with indirect diplomatic exchanges between U.S. and Iranian representatives in the Qatari capital.
He stated, "They will open in some way."
The "some way" refers to an agreement reached in Doha.
Since the start of the U.S.-Israel joint military operations on February 28, this strategic waterway has faced operational restrictions, with Iran's subsequent limitations on maritime traffic becoming a significant factor in rising global fuel costs.
Rubio emphasized that Washington's position demands unobstructed and toll-free navigation through the Strait of Hormuz. He condemned Iran for imposing tolls, claiming that Tehran is isolated internationally for supporting such a maritime fee structure.
Iran, on the other hand, has refused to label these fees as tolls, with a Foreign Ministry representative explaining that the charges are meant to compensate for navigation assistance and environmental protection costs.
Regarding the prospects of the agreement,
Wolf Research analysts referred to the proposal as a "streamlined" agreement, noting that financial markets "will not be interested in delays regarding nuclear issues." Their assessment is straightforward: the right of passage through the Strait will trigger a positive market reaction.
President Trump stated last weekend that he would soon announce news regarding the agreement, although he later adjusted expectations, acknowledging that negotiations would require more time.
Rubio indicated on Tuesday that reaching any agreement would take "a few days," even as U.S. and Iranian military forces reignite conflicts near the Strait. The U.S. Central Command confirmed that part of the airstrikes was aimed at countering Iranian vessels attempting to deploy naval mines.
Why Analysts Remain Cautiously Optimistic
Despite government officials expressing confidence in the outlook, energy industry analysts advocate for caution. Wolf Research anticipates that supplemental commercial and strategic oil reserves "will last until 2027." Henrietta Trez of AGF Investments introduced the concept of "Hormuz hangover," suggesting that the recovery period should be measured in quarters and years.
Capital Economics assessed that the market's rise after the reopening of the Strait may be limited, as energy prices will not return to normal immediately.
Government officials oppose this conservative viewpoint. Kevin Hassett, Director of the National Economic Council, stated on Fox Business Channel, "Once the Strait opens, energy prices will plummet like you have never seen before." He expects that refinery replenishment could be completed within one to two months.