Strait of Hormuz Not Fully Closed, Oil and Gas Transport Disrupted but Ongoing

Despite previous statements from Iran suggesting a potential blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, Iranian Deputy Navy Commander Amir Haidari has explicitly denied rumors of a complete closure, emphasizing that the strait remains open for navigation. This statement has eased market panic regarding disruptions to the global energy supply chain, but the shipping and insurance markets remain highly cautious.

The Strait of Hormuz is a critical chokepoint for approximately 20% of global crude oil and a significant amount of liquefied natural gas (LNG) transport. Any localized restrictions or uncertainties can quickly impact international energy prices and freight rates. Currently, while there has been no complete shutdown, the number of vessels passing through has noticeably decreased. Shipowners are generally extending routes, avoiding high-risk areas, and paying higher war risk insurance premiums.

International shipping organizations such as BIMCO, the European Union, and relevant Chinese authorities have issued navigation advisories, encouraging companies to strengthen risk assessments and flexibly adjust routes and schedules, rather than taking comprehensive suspension measures. This state of "degraded operation but not interrupted" avoids a sudden supply crisis, but it leaves the market bearing a long-term implicit risk premium. If Iran implements selective navigation bans in the future, such as restricting the passage of ships from specific countries, it will lead to loading delays, extended transportation cycles, and increased volatility in crude oil and LNG prices. However, compared to a complete blockade, the impact will be significantly narrower, leaving a buffer for the global market. The core contradiction in the current situation lies in the discrepancy between official statements and the rhetoric of military institutions, forcing the market to rely on fragmented information for decision-making. In the absence of unified and authoritative guidance, shipping and energy companies can only maintain operational resilience through dynamic risk management.