Crypto Market Risk Appetite Returns, Historical Patterns Hint at Approaching Bull Run

According to data analysis from CryptoQuant, crypto market participants are gradually shifting from risk aversion to a risk-on stance, as evidenced by the renewed increase in futures positions. Historically, such shifts in behavior have often marked the end of bear markets and the beginning of a new bull run. The analysis focuses on the "Inter-Exchange Flow Pulse (IFP)" indicator, tracking Bitcoin's flow trends between spot and derivatives exchanges from 2015 to early 2026. When Bitcoin flows from spot platforms to futures trading platforms, it indicates that investors are more inclined to use leverage and increase risk exposure; conversely, if funds flow back to the spot market, it means the market is de-risking.

Bull market cycles are marked in green on the chart, while bear markets or correction phases are marked in black. Red circles mark the points in history when the IFP reached its peak and risk appetite began to contract, while green circles represent the key turning points where risk aversion ended and risk appetite restarted. The latest green circle appeared in early 2026, highly consistent with the bottom formations of previous cycles. Looking back, the green signal in 2016 foreshadowed the strong bull market of 2017; the turning point in 2019 subsequently drove the recovery in 2020 and the price peak in 2021; the bottom signal from 2022 to 2023 paved the way for Bitcoin to break the historical high of $100,000 from 2023 to 2024. It is worth noting that these turning points are not immediate catalysts for price surges, but rather show significant gains weeks to months later, serving as leading indicators. At the same time, Solana ecosystem's payment transaction volume increased by 755% year-on-year, reflecting a significant increase in the activity of its underlying applications, further corroborating the recovery of market sentiment. Combined with the recovery of spot demand and the easing of selling pressure mentioned in another CryptoQuant report, the current on-chain data presents consistent positive signals. Nevertheless, CryptoQuant's "Bull Market Score" remains at 10/100, a typical bear market range. This seemingly contradictory phenomenon precisely confirms that the market is on the eve of a turning point – when the bear market has not completely ended, but risk appetite has quietly rebounded, it is often a typical precursor to the start of a new cycle.