Bitcoin Returns to $68K as Weak US Jobs Data Fails to Boost Sentiment

Despite weaker-than-expected US non-farm payroll data, which markets initially anticipated would drive gains in safe-haven assets, Bitcoin's price failed to escape downward pressure, falling back to around $68,000. Concurrently, US stocks also declined, reflecting investor caution regarding the economic outlook. Despite signs of weakness in the labor market, the Federal Reserve's interest rate expectations remain hawkish. The market is currently only pricing in one potential rate cut this year, far below previous optimistic forecasts. This uncertainty in the policy outlook leaves risk assets without clear upward momentum. Bitcoin's price action exhibits a typical "round trip" characteristic, with a recent failed attempt to break through the key resistance level of $71,000 followed by a rapid pullback, further validating the level as a potential bull trap. Several trading analysts have pointed out that this pattern has occurred multiple times since 2024, with each failed breakout accompanied by a price retracement, forming a cycle of "false breakout - bull trap - decline."

BTC/USD one-hour chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView Among various assets, only gold bucked the trend, rising by 1.5% to $5,155 per ounce, indicating that some funds are shifting to traditional safe-haven assets. This trend also indirectly confirms the market's weakening confidence in risk assets.

XAU/USD one-hour chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView From a technical perspective, Bitcoin is experiencing a "price loop" from its monthly high, retesting previous support areas. Trader J.A. Maartunn pointed out that similar patterns have occurred three times in the past few months, all ending in failure, with the most recent breakout attempt ending near $71,000. If historical patterns continue, this area may once again become a "trap" for bulls.

BTC/USDT perpetual contract 12-hour chart. Source: J. A. Maartunn/X At the same time, the US unemployment rate data did not show significant deterioration, further weakening market expectations for the Federal Reserve to turn dovish.

US Non-Farm Unemployment Rate. Source: BLS The market's pricing of the interest rate path remains highly conservative. CME data shows that the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates once this year remains the mainstream expectation, significantly lower than the forecasts of most institutions previously.

Screenshot of the probability distribution of the Federal Reserve's target interest rate. Source: CME Group Overall, Bitcoin is currently under dual pressure from sentiment and technical factors. Even if favorable signals appear on the macro front, the market lacks sufficient momentum to push the price above key resistance, and may continue to fluctuate in the $65,000–$71,000 range in the short term.