Arthur Hayes Bets on HYPE to Hit $150 in Six Months, Hyperliquid Ecosystem as Key Driver

In recent market dynamics, the HYPE token surged 12% within 24 hours after the release of an analytical article, drawing widespread market attention. Crypto figure Arthur Hayes has placed his fund's largest holding on this token, with the underlying logic revolving around the strong performance of the Hyperliquid protocol.

Hayes points out that Hyperliquid is currently one of the top-performing platforms in terms of revenue among non-stablecoin protocols, with its unique tokenomics being a core advantage. A significant 97% of the protocol's revenue is used to repurchase HYPE tokens, directly translating platform growth into value for token holders, forming a strong deflationary closed loop. To achieve the sustainability of this model, Hyperliquid needs to capture an additional 3.97% of the global perpetual contract trading volume from centralized exchanges. While this goal is challenging, it is not unattainable in the context of the continued penetration of decentralized finance.

Another key growth driver comes from HIP-3—Hyperliquid's launched permissionless perpetual contract framework. In just four months since its launch, HIP-3 has contributed nearly 10% of the platform's total revenue. Its listed perpetual contracts for traditional assets such as gold, silver, Nasdaq 100, and S&P 500 are rapidly accumulating trading volume. Hayes predicts that this module's revenue is expected to grow by 160% in six months, becoming the second growth curve after the main protocol. HYPE's price fell to an 8-month low of $20 at the end of January, before rebounding to around $34. Its historical high exceeded $59 in September 2025. To achieve the $150 target, it requires not only a sustained increase in protocol revenue but also relies on the market's re-evaluation of the decentralized exchange's profitability model. Historical data shows that such repricing often lags behind actual growth, so this goal is highly dependent on the synergistic resonance of market sentiment and the macro liquidity environment. Despite the risks that cannot be ignored, Hyperliquid's performance in product innovation and revenue conversion efficiency has made it a project of great observation value in the altcoin space.