XRP Derivatives Activity Rebounds: Open Interest Surpasses 30-Day Average

According to Binance data, XRP's Open Interest has risen to approximately 447.7 million, exceeding the past 30-day average of 426.7 million for the first time, with a corresponding Z-Score of 1.28. This figure indicates a moderate recovery in market speculation, but has not yet reached the extreme levels seen before previous major fluctuations. A Z-Score is a statistical indicator used to measure the standard deviation distance between the current Open Interest and the average of the past 30 days. A value of zero represents parity with the average, a positive value indicates activity above the average, and a negative value indicates a decrease in trading activity. The current Z-Score of 1.28 means that the Open Interest is approximately 21 million XRP higher than the average, with a standard deviation of 16.38 million. This increase is moderate and more likely reflects the establishment of new positions rather than the continuation of existing positions. When prices rise in tandem with Open Interest, it usually indicates new capital entering the market rather than a simple transfer of positions.

Looking back at the historical trend from June 2025 to March 2026, XRP reached a high point between July and August 2025, when the price approached $3.25, Open Interest once exceeded $1.5 billion, the Z-Score soared, and the fluctuation range expanded significantly. However, in November 2025, as the price fell from $2.5 to $1.6, Open Interest shrank sharply to around $500 million, and leverage liquidation triggered a sharp correction. Since November 2025, the XRP price has fluctuated in the range of $1.34 to $1.60 for a long time, and the Open Interest has also stabilized between 450 million and 550 million. The current shift of the Z-Score from negative to positive is a signal that has emerged against the backdrop of long-term low leverage, which is in stark contrast to the previous high-leverage bubble, and is more likely to indicate a gradual recovery in market sentiment rather than the start of a new round of excessive speculation. It is worth noting that, according to the latest data from Glassnode, XRP currently has the largest unrealized loss in history—as many as 36.8 billion XRP are in a loss-making state, with a total loss of $50.8 billion. This means that the cost of most coin holders is higher than the current market price, and they face the choice of whether to stop the loss or hold for the long term. Against this backdrop, the rebound in Open Interest can be interpreted in two ways: on the one hand, it may be that some traders expect prices to rebound and are laying out long positions in advance; on the other hand, it may be that short sellers are betting that a large number of loss-making holders will eventually be forced to sell. It is impossible to clearly judge the direction based on Open Interest data alone, and subsequent price movements will become a key verification signal.