Despite Bitcoin's recent upward momentum, former BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes remains cautious. His focus isn't on the price itself, but on a core metric called "Net Liquidity"—which more accurately reflects the actual circulating USD by subtracting the Treasury General Account and reverse repo balances from the Federal Reserve's balance sheet.
Hayes points out that the current Bitcoin rally hasn't been accompanied by a substantial expansion of the money supply, suggesting the market may be misled by short-term sentiment. Many investors are entering due to rising prices, but this trend is unlikely to be sustainable without liquidity support. He specifically emphasizes that $90,000 is a key psychological and technical resistance level. If it can't be effectively broken in the short term, Bitcoin could retrace to around $60,000, potentially triggering a chain reaction of liquidations and exacerbating short-term selling pressure.
While large institutional investors have begun quietly positioning themselves in Bitcoin, a large-scale buying spree hasn't yet materialized. Hayes believes that a true bull market requires the Federal Reserve to shift to an easing monetary policy. Before the current tightening policy shows signs of loosening, Bitcoin is more likely to remain range-bound or experience a slight pullback, rather than a strong upward surge.
He admits that if he had only one dollar left, he wouldn't buy Bitcoin now, but would rather wait for a clear signal from the Fed that it's expanding the money supply. Although geopolitical risks may temporarily boost Bitcoin's safe-haven demand as "digital gold," he insists that the long-term trend of the crypto market is always determined by changes in real monetary liquidity.
Recent data shows that Bitcoin is gradually decoupling from traditional assets, demonstrating the potential for independent volatility. Once the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates, the market widely expects Bitcoin to quickly break through the $90,000 mark. Currently, Hayes is closely monitoring the net liquidity indicator, preparing to re-enter the market decisively when the indicator turns positive, capturing the upside driven by true liquidity.