Capriole Investments' BTC Treasury Loss indicator reveals that, as of now, a staggering 77.4% of publicly traded companies holding Bitcoin (BTC) have book values below their cost basis. Even more concerning is that 65.6% of these companies are down more than 20%. The current Bitcoin price is around $67,001, while the average entry price for these major holders is significantly higher.
Cost Basis Concerns
The 65.6% figure is more meaningful as it represents companies with losses exceeding 20%. A 20% unrealized loss is manageable for companies with healthy balance sheets and no debt requiring liquidation of Bitcoin for repayment. However, the situation becomes strained when companies leverage their Bitcoin positions through debt instruments, preferred stock dividends, or convertible notes, as these instruments create liquidity demands irrespective of asset prices.
Historical Chart Reveals
The Capriole indicator's performance from early 2022 to early 2026 provides crucial context. Previously, the peak in the percentage of treasuries below cost occurred in mid-2022 to early 2023, when Bitcoin plummeted from $69,000 to below $16,000. At that time, the indicator reached similarly high levels as today. Subsequently, the market achieved a full recovery as Bitcoin rebounded above the cost basis of companies that accumulated during the 2021 peak.
The current situation of 77.4% being below cost is occurring at a significantly higher absolute price level than the 2022-2023 stress period. Companies that entered the market during the accumulation cycle of 2024 and 2025, with prices between $60,000 and $100,000, are experiencing paper losses, whereas these Bitcoin price levels should represent substantial gains for investors from 2020 and 2021. With each wave of institutional accumulation, the cost basis distribution has shifted upwards.
Hidden Stress Test in the Structure
The fact that 77% of corporate Bitcoin treasuries are simultaneously underwater represents a historical stress reading. The last time the indicator reached similar levels, it marked a period preceding the start of a Bitcoin recovery cycle.