Bitcoin Long-Term Holder Supply Nears All-Time High, Retreats Slightly From Peak

As of March 11, 2026, the real supply of Bitcoin held by long-term holders (LTH) stood at 8.05 million BTC, a decrease of approximately 5.5% from the cycle peak of 8,529,671 BTC reached on March 8, 2026. At that time, Bitcoin was trading at $65,974, and the Z-score for this metric reached 3.20. In the most recent data, the Z-score has fallen back to 2.66. **Cycle Compression**

Cryptocurrency analyst Axel Adler Jr. stated that despite the recent pullback, the amount of Bitcoin held by long-term holders remains at a historical high for this stage of the cycle. Compared to previous cycles at the same post-halving stage (691 days after halving), the current cycle shows a significantly larger holding. On the other hand, the 2020 cycle showed a very different structure at the same point in time. At 691 days after the halving in that cycle, the Z-score was only 1.08, reflecting the end of the bear market following the Terra/LUNA collapse, and the LTH real supply had already declined from its peak for eight months. Adler also examined the MA365 ratio, which is 1.595 in the current cycle. This level is lower than the equivalent ratio of 2.523 in the 2016 cycle and slightly higher than the value of 1.502 in the 2020 cycle. The analyst stated that this means the degree of overheating relative to the one-year moving average is still moderate.

In previous cycles, the final peak of the LTH real supply occurred between 880 and 912 days after the halving, nearly 190 to 220 days later than the current cycle. In these cycles, the Z-score eventually climbed to between 4.24 and 4.94 before peaking. Adler suggests that if the current cycle follows a similar timeline, the current peak may only represent an intermediate high, rather than the final high. **Accumulation Momentum Weakens** Accumulation momentum has also slowed, as the 30-day change rate is currently +7.6%, far below the levels of comparable stages in previous cycles, when the metric rose by 87% in 2016 and 51.6% in 2020. The analyst stated that the decline in the growth rate suggests that the market may be entering a stabilization phase, following strong accumulation in January and February 2026.