Key Points
Unnoticed Capital Rotation
As Bitcoin rises, more importantly, institutional funds seem to be quietly shifting from gold to Bitcoin, and the macro backdrop makes this transition increasingly noteworthy.
As of Friday morning, gold was priced at approximately $5020 per ounce, significantly down from a recent high of $5296. Silver also performed poorly, trading at $80, down $3.36 within 24 hours. Both precious metals have experienced significant pullbacks from their peaks, with gold now approaching the psychological level of $5000. This stagnation is particularly notable for gold, the world's premier crisis hedge asset.
According to data from Bloomberg Finance and J.P. Morgan Flows & Liquidity, market pressures are also intensifying: LQD is down 5.1%, HYG has decreased by 2.5%, and SPY has slipped 0.9%. In this context, the phenomenon of Bitcoin attracting institutional inflows, especially when traditional safe-haven assets are suffering losses, is significant.
This indicates that a portion of institutional capital is beginning to view Bitcoin as a genuine store of value, rather than merely a speculative trade. Meanwhile, gold is nearing a significant psychological bottom, making this capital shift harder to dismiss as coincidental.
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Analyst Michaël van de Poppe notes that Bitcoin is approaching what he considers a key resistance range between $76000 and $79000. He anticipates that there will not be a single candlestick breakout in this range, but he observes that the relative momentum in the altcoin market is stronger, which he views as a positive signal.
His more critical point is that if Bitcoin can close above this range on the monthly chart, it will effectively erase the entire pullback from February and eliminate the possibility of new lows.
On the other hand, trader Merlijn The Trader points out a longer-term signal—the return to the 100-week EMA. He claims this signal has historically indicated significant movements in Bitcoin since 2014.
His analytical framework is binary: above $70000 confirms the signal; below $65000 suggests a potential drop before a sustained rise. Currently, Bitcoin is at $71000, just above the confirmation threshold. Whether it can maintain this level remains an open question.
Effective Bitcoin buy signal since 2014.
Bitcoin tests this trend again.
Why This Matters Now
What is noteworthy at this moment is not just Bitcoin's price level, but the structural story behind it. Gold has retreated to $5000, while Bitcoin climbs towards $76000, yet ETF fund flows are moving in the opposite direction. This scenario was only theoretical a year ago. Geopolitical instability has historically driven funds into gold, but in this cycle, some funds are flowing into Bitcoin, indicating that the asset's recognition is gradually maturing.