In 2025, the sell-off volume from Bitcoin's Long-Term Holders (LTHs) is anticipated to be a fraction of the 15.3 million BTC seen during the 2021 bull market peak, which represented a high point for LTH selling pressure. For comparison, previous cycles saw sell-offs of 7.3 million and 13.6 million BTC. Despite Bitcoin prices briefly surpassing $100,000 this cycle, these figures remain relatively subdued, warranting a closer examination before drawing firm conclusions.
Coinbase's Influence
Data reveals that a significant portion of LTH sell-offs is attributable to internal bookkeeping operations within Coinbase. The exchange moved approximately 800,000 BTC, largely categorized under LTH supply, which were essentially wallet restructurings rather than market sell-offs. Excluding this amount significantly diminishes the perceived selling pressure originating from long-term holders.
This situation is not isolated. As more institutional-grade entities operate on-chain, internal transfers of this magnitude are becoming increasingly common. This is not a flaw in the data but rather a structural characteristic of a maturing market, for which traditional on-chain metrics were not initially designed.
Evolving Definition of Long-Term Holders
More critically, the definition of 'Long-Term Holder' is subtly becoming outdated. Historically, the LTH cohort comprised early investors, miners, and steadfast retail participants who weathered multiple bear markets. While this group persists, two new categories of holders have entered the market with distinct behaviors.
The first category is Spot Bitcoin ETFs. Since their US launch in January 2024, these products now collectively hold around 1.3 million BTC, approximately 6.7% of the total supply. BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin Trust alone accounts for over 770,000 BTC. The selling behavior of these funds is not driven by price euphoria but by investor redemptions, fundamentally differing from the retail-driven distribution mechanisms at previous cycle tops.
The second category is Digital Asset Treasuries. Companies like MicroStrategy (formerly Strategy) have adopted Bitcoin as a primary reserve asset, holding a combined total of approximately 1.1 million BTC, nearing 5% of the total supply. These entities do not have formal reserve maintenance obligations like ETFs, but their acquisition strategies are inherently long-term by design, meaning quarterly earnings pressures do not directly translate into Bitcoin liquidations.
Future Outlook
Collectively, ETFs and corporate treasuries control 11% to 12% of Bitcoin's total supply. When data from these two holder categories are incorporated into on-chain LTH statistics (as is expected), the overall figures will appear more stable compared to previous cycles.
