Strait of Hormuz: A Vital Lifeline for the Global Economy
Approximately 20 million barrels of oil and petroleum products pass through the Strait of Hormuz daily, making it one of the most critical energy corridors in the world. A significant portion of global liquefied natural gas (LNG) transport also relies on this route. Despite alternative pipelines, their limited capacity indicates that there are currently no functional substitutes that can fully replace the Strait of Hormuz, especially in the event of prolonged closures.
Sharp increases in energy prices often have an immediate impact on global financial markets. History shows that rising energy costs can trigger inflation expectations, forcing central banks to navigate a difficult balance between supporting economic growth and controlling inflation. When monetary policy tightens, market participants generally tend to shy away from high-risk assets.
Bitcoin's Correlation with Global Market Dynamics
Since 2020, the correlation between Bitcoin and traditional risk assets has significantly increased, often mirroring the volatility of global stock markets during periods of market stress. During geopolitical tensions such as the Iran crisis, Bitcoin did not exhibit the characteristics of a safe-haven asset; instead, it experienced volatility similar to that of the stock market. Although Bitcoin rose approximately 14% shortly after the event, historical data indicates that geopolitical shocks typically reduce overall market liquidity, increasing selling pressure on Bitcoin and other risk investments.
Leverage in Crypto Derivatives: A Trigger for Volatility
High leverage means that when prices move unfavorably against traders' positions, forced liquidations can quickly cascade. Continuous liquidations exacerbate selling pressure, causing volatility to far exceed that generated by spot market activity. In the event of significant macroeconomic shocks, the current $21.8 billion in open contracts could rapidly unwind, leading to severe price fluctuations.
The market funding rate—the cost required to maintain open positions in perpetual futures contracts—further provides signals about current market sentiment. During bull markets in 2024 and 2025, funding rates typically show positive values and spike rapidly during upward trends. However, recent signs of a shift to negative values indicate that short positions are gaining dominance, with traders increasingly inclined to short against rising prices.
According to CryptoQuant's analysis, “Disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz will impact Bitcoin not only through energy price shocks but also across multiple other dimensions.”