Key Points:
This week, the Federal Reserve's forward guidance, particularly regarding potential interest rate hikes, will be the focus of market attention. Currently, the market anticipates a 99% probability that interest rates will remain unchanged, meaning that market volatility is more likely to stem from tone rather than actual actions. Overall, the environment for risk assets remains unfavorable. A prolonged tightening monetary policy does not favor speculative assets, and any signs of the Fed reopening interest rate hikes could quickly shake market sentiment.
In contrast, Bitcoin has exhibited unusual stability. In such a market environment, Bitcoin's lack of significant decline is a signal in itself—though it does not imply a bullish outlook, it at least indicates that the sellers who dominated the market in February are gradually losing control.
Liquidity Data Shows a Shift
According to analysis by Axel Adler from CryptoQuant, the net trading volume of Bitcoin on Binance and Coinbase has quietly turned positive. The 30-day moving average had recently been deep in negative territory in February, with Binance at -$145M and Coinbase at -$88M, but has now rebounded to approximately +$21M and +$14M.
This is a significant shift. At the February lows, both retail and institutional participants were largely in a selling mode. Due to panic and uncertainty in macro policies, coupled with prices down nearly 30% from historical highs, a relatively uniform situation emerged: people were pulling out. The charts from that period were unmistakable—sustained and heavy negative values, with almost no effective counterattack from buyers.
What has changed now is that buyers and sellers are no longer so aligned. Buyers are gradually reappearing, although current trading volumes remain modest compared to the spikes seen from October to November last year, this directional shift is important. The market reversal relies not only on changes in trading volume but also on shifts in participant composition. This change seems to be occurring slowly.
If this trend can be sustained, it may provide the incremental demand needed for Bitcoin to break through its current range. However, liquidity across the entire crypto market remains thin, meaning that whether up or down, volatility could be exaggerated. Confirmation is still necessary.
Resistance Above $70K Remains
The improved liquidity data does not easily overcome a barrier—the persistent sell wall reappearing above $70,000.
Since February, this pattern has repeated: whenever Bitcoin approaches or breaks through $70K, short-term holders tend to sell, absorbing momentum before a sustainable breakout can develop.
These participants likely bought in relatively recently, possibly during the price surge at the end of 2025, and now their positions are mostly at breakeven or slight profit. Each time the price returns to these entry levels, it presents an exit opportunity for them. The result is a relatively weak market.